WASHINGTON: The New START agreement, the last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, is poised to expire on February 5, 2024. Without a renewal or a new treaty in place, the world’s two leading nuclear powers could begin an unrestricted expansion of their arsenals for the first time in fifty years. Former President Donald Trump has commented that if the treaty lapses, “it expires,” signaling a potentially significant shift in nuclear policy.

The New START treaty, established in 2010, capped each country at a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers. Currently, both nations are focused on the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has complicated any discussions surrounding a successor agreement, although informal dialogues have occurred.

Vladimir Putin recently suggested extending the New START limits for an additional year while also proposing that the nuclear arsenals of the UK and France be included in future negotiations. However, London and Paris have rejected this offer, emphasizing the need for separate discussions. Trump has hinted at a broader multilateral approach to denuclearization, though no specifics have been provided.

Experts are concerned about what the lapse of the New START treaty could mean for global security. If the agreement expires, both countries would operate without any formal constraints on their nuclear arsenals, which combined account for approximately 87% of the world’s nuclear warheads. Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, warns that a lack of control could lead to a "Cold War-like arms race," particularly with China expanding its own nuclear stockpile.

As discussions continue, the implications of a future without a formal arms control treaty remain dire. The potential for escalating tensions presents significant risks not only to diplomatic relations between the USA and Russia but also to global peace and security. Experts advocate for renewed negotiations, highlighting the necessity of frameworks that facilitate stability in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.